BoardGameNews上，Kris Hall对Volko Ruhnke的采访
http://www.boardgamenews.com/index.php/boardgamenews/comments/kris_hall_volko_ruhnke_and_labyrinth/
CSW上关于Labyrinth的测试战报（Volko对他的儿子）
Labyrinth "Let's Roll" Scenario AAR, Part 1
By Volko Ruhnke
Introduction
The following narrative is based on a two-player test game from early September 2009. Three previous playtests (of a hypothetical President Gore scenario) led to important changes to the US soft power and war of ideas mechanics. This playing resulted in two card-text clarifications but no rules changes. I played the US side, and my son Daniel (age 14) played the jihadists. Both of us opted for strategy focused on the long-term (conservative, with lots of investment actions) – one of us too much so.
The scenario is “Let’s Roll!”. It begins in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, with both US prestige and jihadist funding at high levels. The US power preference (Posture) is Hard. Afghanistan is under Islamist Rule. The jihadist side seeks to weaken and then violently overthrow Muslim governments to create a pan-Islamist mega-state; the US side seeks to keep a lid on all that while spreading democracy (Good Governance).
Each 2-player hand of cards in the game represents roughly a year in the conflict, so the narrative below tracks hands of cards by calendar years. [Text in brackets notes game-play representing the preceding portion of the “historical” narrative.]
Late 2001: Al-Qaeda Arsenal, Enduring Freedom, Beirut Tinder
Even as al-Qaeda put its attacks on the US Homeland into motion, it dispatches operatives to pursue contacts in Central Asia who offer to sell it former-Soviet materials for weapons of mass destruction. Kazakh authorities nab a cell seeking bioweapons, but a second cell succeeds in acquiring enough enriched uranium for the assembly of a nuclear device.
[Travel 2 cells Afghanistan to Central Asia; “Kazakh Strain” and “HEU” events.]
Meanwhile, the US works to line up allies in the war on terror about to begin: The UK immediately and Eastern European countries more reluctantly back a forceful US response. US forces invade Afghanistan to eliminate al-Qaeda’s sanctuary, in a military move largely seen as an overreaction to 9/11. Nevertheless, immediate UN commitment to reconstruction and political development of post-Taliban Afghanistan makes surprisingly rapid gains. Even Tehran gets into the act there, carrying out covert operations against its old Taliban enemy.
[War of Ideas (WoI) in UK, EEurope twice, & Germany result in Hard, Hard, Soft, respectively (+2 Prestige); Regime Change—6 troops to Afghanistan, which goes to Poor Ally, -5 Prestige, Islamist Resources 1 to 0; “UN Nation Builing” on a 6 shifts Afghanistan to Fair; “Iran” removes 1 cell from Afghanistan.]
Further west, assassination of a popular anti-Syrian politician in Lebanon sparks democratic revival there (a so-called “Cedar Revolution”) while deepening repression in Syria. Kurdish jihadists build strength in Iraq, then cross the border into the Levant, perhaps to exploit the discontent in Damascus or to spike the liberalism emanating from Beirut. Victory by HAMAS in Palestinian legislative elections detracts attention (and funding) from al-Qaeda, so it urges cells in Lebanon, Syria, and Uzbekistan to prepare terrorist attacks to regain the jihad center stage. Bombings in the latter two countries succeed in refilling AQ coffers.
[“Hariri Killed”, Lebanon tests Fair, Syria to Poor; “Ansar al-Islam” on US play puts a cell in Iraq; recruit in Iraq adds second cell, travel to Syria & Lebanon; several Plots in Lebanon/Syria fail, 1 in Syria & 1 in Central Asia succeed and boost Funding to 9.]
2002: Central Asia Stews, the Homeland Secures
With the US’s poor post-invasion image, little progress can be made in stabilizing Afghanistan; Washington turns instead to improving its cachet. Unfortunately, politicians in Europe are keener to exploit anti-US feelings there, and Germany and France openly criticize US “bullying” in South Asia. Timely taunts from Bin Laden—whereabouts unknown—make the US military effort appear that much more misguided. US support along with much of the EU of Muslim aspirations in Kosovo help US prestige a little, but only at the cost of Serbian opposition to the war on terror. Diplomacy to mend fences with Berlin and Belgrade falls flat.
[“Schroeder & Chirac” and “Bin Laden Audio” send Prestige to 1; “Kosovo” Prestige to 2; 2 WoI in Germany and 1 in Serbia leave both Soft.]
Meanwhile, the jihadists focus on recruiting, surging their numbers in several Central Asian states and exploiting Israeli withdrawal from Gaza to train operatives there and then infiltrate them into Lebanon to join accomplices waiting there. Russian security services—no doubt nervous about the growing jihadist presence in Russia’s “near abroad”—work with their friends in Central Asia to disrupt the cells there, but they do not even come close to countering al-Qaeda’s rate of recruitment.
[Multiple Recruit ops in Central Asia vs “FSB” results in 6 cell total there; jihadist play of “Gaza Withdrawal” places cell in Israel that travels to Lebanon.]
Washington, aware of Bin Laden’s acquisition of fissile material (though not of where AQ is keeping it) acts to secure the Homeland against another attack. Congress passes the Patriot Act to tighten US borders and increases appropriations for nuclear emergency and bioterrorism preparedness.
[US play of “Patriot Act” and “NEST” make it harder for cells to travel to the US and easier for US to block WMD Plots there.]
2003: Counterstroke in the Levant, Fire in the Horn
As al-Qaeda continues to recruit and train under the poor governance in Central Asia, the US and Israel conspire to strike a blow in Lebanon. As AQ ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is lured to take emirship of jihadists there, Mossad uses its reach into the country to launch counterterrorist operations that devastate the al-Qaeda presence. Recruiting in Syria lapses.
[3 of 4 Recruit ops Central Asia fail; US play of “Zarqawi” to Alert against Plot in Lebanon induces jihadists to place a 3rd cell there, “Mossad & Shin Bet” removes all cells from Lebanon; 2 Recruit ops in Syria fail.]
Meanwhile, jihadists open a new front in the global conflict even as Afghanistan heats up. Jihadist cells form in Somalia just as Mogadishu has developed a semblance of decent government, while volunteers from across the Arab world—attracted by the opportunity to fight US forces directly—pour into Afghanistan by various routes. US forces do a reputable job hunting them down and thwarting their terrorist attacks. But the fighting inspires Uzbek jihadists next door to organize a “Jihad Union”, adding to what increasing looks like Asia’s “Jihad Central” in their country.
[“Al-Ittihad al-Islami” places a cell in Somalia, which tests Fair; “Foreign Fighters” puts 3 cells into Afghanistan; 1 of 3 Afghan Plots succeed (2 failures each remove a cell); US Disrupts there to remove last cell and add 1 to Prestige; US play of “Islamic Jihad Union” to Alert against Plot adds a 7th cell to Central Asia.]
On the diplomatic front, US sanction under Patriot Act authorities of Muslim organizations that donate to al-Qaeda and the impact of Philippine Moro separatists entering talks with Manila finally trim jihadist finances to moderate levels. Efforts by Tony Blair to unite Europe behind the US are less successful, however, and Manila joins the ranks of those opposed to US military “adventurism”. While Washington leaning on Manila soon brings it around, the affair is widely viewed as a sign of waning global support for the war in Afghanistan.
[“Sanctions” and “Moro Talks” drop Funding to 6; “Tony Blair” WoI all fail; Philippines to Soft imposes GWOT Relations penalty of 1; 2 WoI Philippines to Hard, Prestige to 4 (Medium).]
Now the bombs really go off. Central Asia as expected sees terrorist violence. But it is the Somali cell that turns out to be the most skillful and highly motivated, carrying out a long series of destructive and coordinated bombings (though enough of them involve suicide operations that the cell largely eliminates itself). In none of these attacks has al-Qaeda turned to its nuclear capability—conventional explosives are working just fine. It’s all too much for the Somali government, which, despite valiant efforts to control the violence, ultimately disintegrates. Donations to the global jihad skyrocket.
[2 of 3 Plot ops succeed (Central Asia & Somalia); “Martyrdom Operation” adds 2 more to Somalia and removes the cell there; 6 post-Plot rolls against Somalia’s Governance just barely succeeds in worsening it to Poor; Funding maxes out at 9.]
2004: Central Asian Revolution, South Asian Containment
The war in Afghanistan grinds on. Efforts to develop the ability of the government—reasonably effective within Kabul—to provide services in the countryside are disappointing. International support for the US mission is sufficient, however, for NATO-led forces to augment US troops there. That support does not include Pakistan, however, which tilts toward the Islamists. In Washington, meantime, domestic counterterrorist authorities are consumed by investigation into the delivery of anthrax-laced letters through the US Mail.
[WoI Afghanistan fails, “NATO” marker placed there; “Kashmir” Pakistan to Adversary; “Amerithrax” discards US 3 card.]
Without further warning, the seeds al-Qaeda planted as it sought former Soviet weapons sprout. The jihadists’ sizable army of guerilla fighters built over the previous 2? years comes down from the Uzbek and Tajik hills, and the corrupt and ineffective post-Soviet governments of Central Asia fall like dominoes. The black flags of the mujahidin fly over Tashkent and Dushanbe, and the Islamist regime begins to send fighters south to strike the Infidel in Afghanistan. Further south, the Kashmiri-jihadist Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LT) build strength in pro-US India and in the sanctuary of Pakistan.
[Fully successful 3-value Jihad in Central Asia leaves 8 cells there, Central Asia Poor Neutral to Islamist Rule Adversary, Islamist Resources to 2; “Lashkar-e-Tayyiba” places cells in India and Pakistan, India tests Hard; 3 cells travel Central Asia to Afghanistan.]
The US-led Coalition now faces a choice between an immediate counteroffensive and containment of the Central Asian caliphate. With resources still committed to an unsettled Afghanistan, it chooses containment. India disrupts the LT cell within its borders. Tehran—as worried about the Sunni extremist power in its neighborhood as is the Coalition in Afghanistan—uses its agents in that country to hunt down Tajik mujahidin. Meanwhile, Coalition forces take advantage of jihadist attempts to strike US facilities to root out others.
[Disrupt in India removes cell there; “Iran” removes cell in Afghanistan; 2 of 3 plot ops there fail, removing 2 cells.]
Unfortunately, US focus on the plotting in Afghanistan prevents it from supporting what might have been a reform movement in Pakistan. And one plot in Kabul does succeed, causing substantial US casualties and turning allied malaise to defeatism. The blasts kill not only “infidels” but also Afghan bystanders, however. Muslim media coverage of that aspect of the attacks—together with new US Treasury sanctions—brings outside funding for al-Qaeda to a historic low.
[Jihadist play of “Benazir Bhutto” canceled by use for the above Plot ops; “Backlash” on 3 Plot in Afghanistan—Prestige sinks to 1 but also Funding down to 4 (just above Tight).]
With the Islamist drive south just about spent, the jihadists attempt one more plot in Afghanistan, then shift their crosshairs onto Syria, where US forces will have much more trouble reaching them. Recruitment there resumes, and a major attack against Western presence in Damascus comes off, and the flow of terrorist finance is partially restored. The US uses the respite in Afghanistan and the reinforcement from NATO to bring some weary troops home.
[2 Recruit ops adds a 2nd cell to Syria; 3 plots there and 1 in Afghanistan fail, a 4th plot placed in Syria resolves and bumps Funding back up to 7 (Ample for now but will drop to Moderate with standard -1 Funding at end of hand). 2 of 6 troops in Afghanistan Deploy to US Troops track (still at War) while there are no cells to keep them in the Regime Change country.]
2005: Pulling Up Tent Stakes, Spreading Contagion
While South Asia solidifies further for the Coalition—Islamabad opens talks with India, an abrupt turn away from its heretofore irredentist and anti-US politics—the Central Asia Islamists remain focused on the Levant. Recruiting in Syria continues, as well as attempts to infiltrate the country directly from the Uzbek-Tajik caliphate. In response, the US signs the King of nearby Jordan up for the war on terror.
[Recruit op brings Syria to 3 cells; 1 Travel Central Asia to Syria fails; “Indo-Pakistani Talks” precondition met by Fair governance in Pakistan, Pak to Ally and further “Kashmir” and “LT” blocked; “Abdullah” sets Jordan at Fair Ally (containing jihadism from Syria, as Lebanon also remains at Fair), slight increase to US Prestige and decrease to Funding.]
As Syrian authorities are kept busy chasing terrorist plotters there, events elsewhere are generally unhelpful to the Coalition. Islamic extremism builds in the Sunni population of western Iraq, offering a future safe haven to Syrian jihadists should they need one. A military clash between Israel and HAMAS stokes anger against the US and contributions to al-Qaeda and siphons US resources but does distract support from the Taliban. Yemen distances itself from Washington’s global war. Jihadism is discovered and disrupted in England, discovered and left to fester in Indonesia. US diplomacy does score a success in patching things up with Serbia, and Saudi Arabia and Iraq have been quiet enough to bring home some US troops from the Arab Peninsula.
[“Gaza War” sends Prestige back to 1, Funding to 6, discards “Taliban” from US hand; jihadist play of “Saleh” sets Yemen to Fair Adversary; US uses “Al-Anbar” for War of Ideas in Serbia, event marker placed between Iraq and Syria, Prestige to 2; “Homegrown” places a cell in UK, which Plots unsuccessfully and then is Disrupted with US play of “Jemaah Islamiya”, which places 2 cells in Indonesia/Malaysia and tests those countries as Poor Neutral. Syrian Alert removes a pending plot there, other plots there fail to mature. 2 troops Deploy from Saudi Arabia to Troops Track, US still barely at War.]
2006: "Safer Now"
As the jihadist contagion spreads, al-Qaeda off-shoots test the waters in Egypt and Turkey and find the government in the latter disturbingly competent. But troubles with the Kurds undermine recent reforms in Ankara while, in Lebanon, Hizballah skullduggery aborts the budding democratization there.
[“Regional Al-Qaeda” places cells in Egypt (Poor) and Turkey (Fair); “Kurdistan” worsens Turkey to Poor; “Hizballah” worsens Lebanon to Poor.]
The US Administration, while secretly undertaking renditions of jihadists detained in Afghanistan to third countries that might better exploit their information, publicly makes “safer now” a slogan for the mid-term elections. The celebration of 5 years without a Homeland attack does point out to the world some apparent success in the United States’ war on terror, but the campaign has the unintended effect of dampening the US electorate’s — and Congress’s — enthusiasm for hard tactics against terror. Stung, the Administration responds with softened pronouncements — to the bemusement of allies overseas who have invested domestic political capital to buttress the US hard line (or perhaps truly believe that a US hard line remains warranted). As if to emphasize their point, a series of truck bombs rocks Damascus, to the benefit of jihadist finances.
[“Renditions” causes jihadist discard; “Safer Now” raises Prestige to 4 (Medium), US Posture to Soft and with it GWOT penalty to 3; 3 Plot operations in Syria all succeed and go off, sending Funding to 9.]
The US begins its repair effort with allies, managing to convince the understanding East Europeans that new times demand new tactics. Consistent with the domestic mood, the US brings more troops home from Arabia. It also pursues cooperation in earnest with Russia to secure its WMD arsenal against any acquisition attempts from the nearby caliphate. The caliphate, for its part, continues its efforts to infiltrate operatives and fighters into Syria. The campaign of terrorist attacks in the latter country continues, while suicide attacks strike Jakarta and Bali.
[WoI leaves Serbia Hard but shifts EEurope to Soft, Prestige to 5, GWOT penalty to 2; 2 troops Deploy from Gulf States to the Troops Track, US at Low Intensity for an extra card; “CTR” to Russia; 1 of 3 Travel Central Asia to Syria succeeds; 1 Plot in Syria and “Martyrdom Operation” in Indonesia resolve, keeping Funding at max.]
End of Part 1. To be continued....
2007: Afghanistan Act II, America the Respectful
The jihadists have made more progress toward their goals than has the US, but they have thus far failed to export their revolution from Central Asia. Toward ultimate triumph of the jihad, al-Qaeda in Central Asia undertakes a large-scale training program of fighters to renew its drive south (Sunni scholarly rulings against funding the jihad come too late to prevent the build up). In the face of US-Russian cooperation, al-Qaeda abandons an effort underway to acquire a complete Russian nuclear weapon and instead sends its guerilla army into Afghanistan. An aggressive terrorist campaign there is met by equal Coalition and Afghan security efforts to thwart or mitigate the political impact of any attacks. The two appear stalemated, as the efforts of both are consumed in the dusty country.
[1st of 3 possible reshuffles; 6 Recruit ops in Central Asia cells there to 7 (only 1 is left on the Funding Track); “Al-Azhar” drops Funding to 5; Jihadists use “Loose Nuke” card instead to travel to Afghanistan, multiple Plots, US Alerts, and additional Travel there ensue.]
Iran and Turkey cooperate to eliminate a cell operating along their borders. Back in the US, the Administration continues to get resonance by arguing that its more respectful methods are containing terrorism. Serbia among others endorses the new US policies, and it appears that US prestige in the Muslim world and elsewhere has more than recovered in response to the gentler US approach and the world is again aligned in its defense against extremism. But the same approach for the time being rules out any US invasion of the Islamist states of Central Asia.
[US “Iran” to remove cell from Turkey; another “Safer Now” raises Prestige to 7 (High), leaves US Soft; 2 WoI Serbia to Soft and Prestige to 8, GWOT penalty to 0.]
The jihadist bolt now expended in occupied Afghanistan, efforts shift once again to easier targets in Syria, where a terror plot finally comes off. Nearby, an Israeli invasion of Lebanon to chase Hizballah back from the border clouds the US image slightly and contributes to jihadism within Lebanon. Nevertheless, the political and diplomatic situation between the West and Muslim world finally appear propitious for a US democratization push that has teeth. The first US effort focuses on the key Arab state of Saudi Arabia but is rebuffed.
[Plot Afghanistan fails (cells to 0) but 1 is resolved in Syria (Funding to 8, Ample); “Lebanon War” Prestige to 7, cell in Lebanon, US must discard a card; WoI to improve Governance in Saudi Arabia (needs a 5-6) fails.]
2008: The Bubble Bursts
Seeking to make hay in the sunshine, US development assistance and advisors pour into Afghanistan as the “war of ideas” ramps up there. All the US resources and good intentions are to no avail, however, as the Kabul government appears unable to exceed mediocre performance. The Coalition remains mired, and foreign fighters arrive in the country in time to force a focus from development back onto basic security, and new recruits from Central Asia augment them.
[5 WoI attempts in Afghanistan fail, the last one triggering “Foreign Fighters”, placing 3 cells into the country, still in Regime Change; 1 Recruit in Central Asia; 2 Travel from there to Afghanistan, bringing number of cells to 5—a firm barrier to any War of Ideas there.]
Meanwhile, recruiting in Syria continues, and jihadists there appear ready to shift from terrorism to a real effort to topple the regime. In addition, regional al-Qaeda allies spring up in North Africa but find the regimes opposing them there solid. Instead, the North African cells and one in Lebanon use the ready access to Europe to travel there and attempt a series of attacks to shake European commitment to the US war of ideas. Multiple plots in Germany, France, and Eastern Europe fail, however, and most of the cells are wrapped up. Across the globe, Turkic Uyghurs form a jihadist movement targeting China.
[Recruit Syria brings cells to 5; “Regional Al-Qaeda” places cells in Morocco and Algeria/Tunisia, all of which test Fair; those cells plus 1 from Lebanon travel to the EU, where 7 Plot attempts by them all fail; US Disrupts in EEurope and Germany; the latter triggers “Uyghur Jihad” to place a cell in China (at Soft). All available cells are in play.]
On the heels of the disappointing results of the US democratization drive and jihadist counterstroke in Afghanistan, the roof falls in. The secret renditions program leaks and becomes a worldwide scandal. The US is accused of false respect for human rights and of speaking out of both sides of its mouth. Its prestige plummets, and the President’s party casts about for a candidate who will prosecute the war without the ultimately self-defeating lip service to European appeasers of extremism.
Icing the ugly cake, Kabul’s involvement in the renditions causes the fragile government so much embarrassment in the Muslim world that it begins to disavow the Coalition and raise the possibility of accommodation with the Taliban. US Afghan policy appears in tatters. Nevertheless, politically unfettered, US forces there return to harsher counterinsurgent tactics, doing well at reducing jihadist numbers and thereby restoring a bit of Washington’s reputation.
[US card play riskily triggers “Leak”, flipping (blocking) “Renditions”, shifting US back to Hard, Prestige to 1, and Afghan Alignment from Ally to Neutral; US uses the card’s ops for disrupt in Afghanistan to remove 2 of 5 cells, Prestige to 2; a failed Plot there removes a 3rd.]
2009: US Counterterrorism Digs Out
Exploiting their control of poppy-growing areas of Afghanistan, the jihadists use drug money to swell their ranks there and launch an ambitious new terror campaign. But Coalition capture and interrogation of al-Qaeda mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed provides information to foil the plots as well as a massive suicide operation against France planned by the surviving cell in Europe. Continued counterinsurgent operations again trim back the Afghan jihadist numbers and add to a recovering US reputation. Terrorist activity continues in Syria, but authorities there are on top of each plot in turn. Gulf donors are losing interest in the jihad. In the United States, the eternal Amerithrax investigation takes another turn, consuming much media and law enforcement energy.
[“Opium” brings cells in Afghanistan back to 5; 2 of 3 Plotting attempts there succeed, and US trigger of “Martyrdom Operation” (to Disrupt 2 cells) places another 2 plots there at the expense of the French cell; “KSM” then removes all 4 plots and raises Prestige to 5; 3 uncoordinated plots in Syria each are countered by Alerts; “Amerithrax” forces discard of “CTR”; a cell is recruited in Central Asia.]
Perhaps responding to Uyghur separatism, China surprises the world by implicitly endorsing the aggressive US anti-jihadist operations. A Uyghur jihadist attempt to punish and perhaps reverse Beijing with an attack inside the PRC flops. With these diplomatic successes and a stabilized military situation in Afghanistan, the West is finally again positioned to promote good governance there. It banks first on the United Nations presence, but this time the world body gains no traction. At year’s end, the US Administration contemplates an invasion of Central Asia, but the risk to prestige, European relations, and the war of ideas does not seem warranted.
[WoI succeeds in bringing China to Hard and Prestige to 7 (High); a Plot in China fails; “UN Nation Building” in Afghanistan fails on a 1 (needed 4-6).]
2010: Mopping the Floor While the Roof is Leaking
The year opens with a second Israeli Gaza incursion, provoked by HAMAS rocket fire into Israel, that again curbs Muslim enthusiasm for US policy, gives al-Qaeda funding a shot in the arm, but also draws would be anti-US suicide bombers into that conflict instead. More US Treasury Department designations keep a lid on al-Qaeda finances, while Syrian security detains most of the final available Central Asian operatives flying into that country. Russian forces strike at Central Asian militant training infrastructure, while US friends in Southeast Asia put a stake in the heart of Indonesian jihadism by arresting its key operative Hambali.
[“Gaza War” Prestige down to 6 (Medium), Funding up to 6 (still Moderate), and US discard without effect of “Martyrdom Operation”; jihadist trigger of “Sanctions” (Funding back to 5) to attempt 1 cell Travel Central Asia to Syria that fails, eliminating the cell; “Hambali” removes a remaining cell in Indonesia/Malaysia and ups Prestige to 7 (High); “FSB” removes the last cell in Islamist Central Asia.]
A confident US now again invests in building Afghan governance, and is successful in repairing the damage caused by the renditions mess—but no more than that. A new Taliban resurgence reestablishes Islamist militancy not only in the Afghan border areas but also in the autonomous territories of next-door Pakistan. Terrorist attacks go off in Damascus and are averted in Xinjiang. The Uyghur terrorists pull out of China to help rebuild fighting strength in Central Asia. And Iraq’s Saddam asserts his anti-Coalition interest by providing some of his oil revenue to the jihad—al-Qaeda will end this year with ample funding. But the real danger is now building in Bashar Asad’s anti-US Syria, where patient jihadist organization is bearing fruit and an ever growing guerilla force awaits in the shadows.
[3 Recruit ops in Syria all succeed (cells to 8); 1 of 3 WoI succeeds, shifting Neutral Alignment back to Ally but leaving Governance Fair and triggering “FATA” and “Taliban” (cell each in Afghan & Pak, -1 Prestige to 6); 2 plots resolved in Syria, 1 in China Alerted; 1 cell Travels China to Central Asia; “Saddam” sets Funding to 9; “Sanctions” takes it back to 8, end of hand takes it to 7 (still Ample).]
2011: The Syrian War
The Taliban open the new year with an attack on the United Nations, killing the leader of the long UN mission in that country and resulting in a UN pullout. A separate Taliban plot in Kabul goes awry, but another in Pakistan absorbs authorities’ resources. With most US troops at home, global Islamist proselytizing begins to take an anti-violence bent, denting al-Qaeda and Taliban finances.
[“Vieira de Mello Slain” blocks UN; failed Plot removes Afghan cell, Plot in Pakistan Alerted; “Hizb -ut-Tahrir” Funding down to 6 (Moderate).]
All this is but preamble. In the spring, the powerful jihadist organization in Syria finally makes its move on the regime. Asad’s security forces—focused on countering Israel—prove a weak reed against the popular internal uprising. With only moderate losses, the Islamists seize control of the country in a month. Not resting a minute in the onward march of the jihad, fighters immediately begin to infiltrate the Syrian-Iraqi border into the pro-Islamist population of al-Anbar province.
[Successful Jihad in Syria, -1 cell to 7, Syria to Islamist Rule Adversary, Islamist Resources to 4 (of 6 needed for win); 3 cells Travel Syria to Iraq]
This time Washington divines that containment is not enough. It quickly assembles Coalition backing and launches a summer invasion of the new Syrian Islamist state, quickly pushing jihadists eastward out of Damascus. While there is little cheering in the Muslim world, shock and revulsion at Asad’s weakness keeps protest mild this time. A provisional government of appointed anti-Asad Syrians proves itself popular and surprisingly competent. To show that the Central Asian “terror states” are not to be left off the hook, US special forces based in Afghanistan raid northward.
[Regime Change Deploy 6 troops from Track to Syria, US to War, Syria tests Fair Ally, Islamist Resources back to 2 (for Central Asia), Prestige -1 to 4 (still Medium); “Special Forces” removes cell in Central Asia.]
Jihadist efforts to strike at US troops in Syria and the new government there are largely self-defeating; terrorist plotting inside Iraq adds up to little that Saddam’s security services can’t handle. Iran meanwhile uses agents within Pakistan to strike jihadist interests there. The jihad’s only success for the remainder of the year is the recruiting of new cadres in its Central Asian bastion and formation—aided by jihadist use of the Internet—of a new cell in Lebanon. While stabilization work in Syria remains, the US feels confident enough in the Fall to draw down its troop strength there by a small percentage.
[5 Plot ops in Syria with only 1 success (Alerted) eliminates the 4 cells remaining there; 6 Plot ops in Iraq also yield only 1 success, but the Alert to stop it triggers “Jihadist Videos” that places a cell each in Central Asia an Lebanon; “Iran” removes a cell from Pakistan (despite “FATA”).]
2012: Democratic Surge and US Disillusionment
Bin Ladin’s presence over the airwaves out of Central Asia—a constant reminder of unfinished US business—remains an embarrassment for Washington, but the establishment of a US embassy in independent Kosovo provides an antidote in Muslim media. Rapidly organized national elections in Syria see massive turnout despite jihadist and Baathist threats to any who dare participate. Apparently the weariness with Asad’s regime and the brief taste of Islamist rule has left the population eager for representative government. The election’s winners are largely viewed inside and outside Syria as legitimate, and, in a remarkable course of events over just a single year, Arab democracy sprouts after decades of Alawite tyranny.
[2nd reshuffle; “Bin Lain Audio” Prestige to 3 (Low); “Kosovo” Prestige back to 4 (Medium, Serbia already Soft so no change to its Posture); “Mass Turnout” Syria Fair to Good Ally, Good Resources to 2 (compared to 2 Islamist Resources for Central Asia—US must exceed double Islamist total to win).]
The Coalition occupation of Afghanistan remains in the Arab news, and Arab volunteers continue to flow into that still troubled country. Their clever, massed employment of roadside bombs takes a heavy toll on US and NATO troops, causing a search for countermeasures as well as political pain in the US, Canada, and Europe. Aggressive Coalition counteroffensive sweeps help, and Afghanistan returns to its decade-long low boil.
[“Foreign Fighters” places 3 cells in Afghanistan; “IEDs” causes US discard of a 3 card; 2 Disrupt operations in Afghanistan eliminate the cells and pump up
Prestige to 6 (still Medium).]
Jihadist hopes next turn to Iraq and the Anbar bridgehead established there before the US invasion of Syria. Recruiting among its Sunnis starts slow but picks up momentum, until fighters there are as numerous as they had been before the revolution in Syria. Multiple terrorist attacks in Baghdad and Basra keep the regime off balance, and the jihad appears poised to bite Saddam’s hand.
[5 of 8 Recruit ops in Iraq succeed, cells to 8; 3 of 5 Plot ops in Iraq succeed, none Alerted.]
The US for the moment leaves Saddam to his fate. With help from the good example and its new friends in Damascus, the US successfully presses the King of Jordan finally to go all the way with his political reforms. A similar effort with the Turks is less warmly received, old tendencies rear up in relations with Moscow, and suicide bombings return to Jakarta. But Arab democracy, at least, is spreading.
[WoI Jordan succeeds, Fair to Good Ally (Good Resources to 3, compared to Islamist 2); WoI Turkey fails; “Ex-KGB” removes “CTR” from Russia; “Martyrdom Operation” sets off 2 unblocked plots in Indonesia, leaving 1 cell there.]
The US Administration considers acting on the apparent pro-Western momentum at last to take the war seriously into Central Asia and eliminate jihadist rule. But it demurs, conserving US resources for the longer struggle and confident that the positive examples of Syria and Jordan will eventually become irresistible across the Muslim world. Instead, the Administration takes the easier step of bringing the troops home from Syria after a fabulously successful 18-month deployment.
[3-ops card that might have been used for Regime Change in Central Asia instead used to deploy troops from Syria to Troops Track, bringing US from War to Low Intensity (providing an extra card in the US hand.]
That prudence soon proves a political mistake. The 2012 presidential election that follows turns not on US successes in Syria but on why Usama Bin Ladin’s “terror states” of Central Asia have been allowed to survive and why the US is facing yet another jihad in Iraq. The opponents successfully cast the Administration not as having won an 18-month war in Syria but as losing a 10-year war since 9/11, and the electorate opts for a new approach. By Inauguration Day, 2013, commentators are already judging the decade-long “Global War on Terror” as a time of US hesitation—even dithering—against aggressive jihadist advances, a historical condemnation all the worse in light of the massive US material advantage the Administration had available.
[1st jihadist play of new hand is “US Election” for 3rd reshuffle and game end, Good Resources at 3 is less than twice Islamist Resources at 2: Jihadist side wins.]
